I don’t believe any of these scenarios, mind you, but Bryan Knowles over at the Bleacher Report has calculated all of the odds on all of the possible season-ending combinations available to the Niners. He finds a few where the Niners, now wallowing at 7-5 with four games remaining, make into the post-season.
I suspect the most likely scenario from here is for the Niners to go 2-2 and ending up 9-7. That may be enough to make the playoffs if a number of other things break their way. This is also the most complex of the possible scenarios covered by Knowles. If the two wins come against the Seahawks and the Cardinals, he and Pro Football Forecast calculate the Niners’ odds of making the playoffs at just under 1-in-4 (22.1%). Beating only Oakland and San Diego in the closing weeks produces only a .5% chance of making the postseason.
As Knowles points out, even winning out doesn’t guarantee the 49ers a playoff spot. For that to happen, they’d need Detroit, Seattle and Dallas to lose at least one more game each, certainly within the realm of possibility but not a guarantee. Another route to the playoffs for an 11-5 Niners team is for Arizona’s collapse to continue by losing one game besides the one they’d have to lose to San Francisco. Less likely.
It’s always fun as the season winds down to speculate about these things. With so many playoff spots available and teams bunched as they are in several of the conferences, this year promises to go down to the wire like most recent seasons have.
Frankly, if the Niners do make the playoffs it will, as Knowles points out, be a helluva story line.
Dan Shafer on Sports 